Tyler Warren never leaves the field. He has played 90% of the Colts' offensive snaps, the kind of role that usually makes a tight end a weekly starter, and the consensus has him TE5 for Sunday in Pittsburgh.
The production has not followed the snaps. Twenty-seven targets have become 23 catches for 130 yards, 5.7 yards a catch, with two touchdowns. His finishes are TE14, TE10, TE10 and TE21. He has never been better than TE10.
The setting does not help. Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite in a game with a 44.5 total, which puts Indianapolis at an estimated 21 points. Over 18 weeks of backtesting, tight ends ranked fifth to eighth on a team expected to score 22 or fewer finished outside the top 12 in 64% of cases, against 42% on teams expected to score 25 or more.
In fairness, that signal failed us last week. We sat three tight ends on low team totals and all three finished inside the top 12, because two of their teams beat their totals by nine and 15 points. One week does not overturn 18, but it is the reason this is one of only two tight-end Sits this week rather than three.
A Sit is a claim he finishes outside TE12. With a 90% snap share he will get chances. Short catches are what he has done with them so far.