Dalton Schultz caught 12 of 14 targets for 140 yards in Houston's Week 2 loss to Cincinnati. All three numbers are career highs — his previous bests were 10 catches, 11 targets and 130 yards, all set in 2023. He scored 26.0 points and finished as the TE1 of the week.
It happened because Nico Collins was not there. Collins suffered a grade 1 hamstring strain in Wednesday's practice, was ruled out, and had been Houston's clear number one, drawing 10 targets in the opener. Schultz inherited that volume almost intact. This is an artifact of an absence, not a change in who Schultz is, and anyone telling you he has become a top-three tight end is reading one box score.
But the absence has not ended. Collins was diagnosed with an expectation of missing two games, and Aaron Wilson reported that the expectation is he does not play in Week 3 against Indianapolis. The timeline is described as fluid, which cuts both ways — but as of the day this sheet went up, the condition that produced 14 targets is still in place.
That is the entire argument, and it is deliberately narrow. Schultz played 66 percent of snaps and ran a route on 71 percent of dropbacks, which is a real workload but not an elite one. When Collins returns, Schultz goes back to being a high-floor streamer rather than a difference-maker, and the honest move then is to drop him back out of the top three.
We have him as one of three Must Start tight ends this week, ahead of Brock Bowers, who the consensus ranks third and who is trending toward his first game back from a meniscus trim. A tight end in his season debut on a managed snap count is a worse bet than one who just drew 14 targets and is about to face Indianapolis without the teammate who normally takes them.