This is the riskiest call on our sheet, so it deserves an explanation. MarShawn Lloyd has led Green Bay’s backfield since Josh Jacobs was placed on the Commissioner’s Exempt List in late August, but “led” is generous: 44% of the snaps last week and 55% the week before, with Pierre Strong Jr. and Kaleb Johnson taking the rest. He finished RB12 last week on ten carries for 31 yards and two touchdowns, after RB52, RB30, RB48 and RB30.
The consensus has him RB21, and Sleeper’s projection has him 18th. Our model has him 11th, because at running back it adds the Vegas team total to the projection, and Green Bay is expected to score 27.5 points against Dallas on Sunday night, in a game with a 53.5 total, tied for the highest of the week.
Is that a good reason? Over 19 weeks of results, backs ranked 12th to 22nd by projection finished in the top 12 34% of the time (209 cases). On teams expected to score 27 or more, 53% (15 cases). On teams expected to score 22 or fewer, 28% (112 cases). As a way of choosing the 12 running-back Must Starts, adding the team total to the projection hit 49% of the time, against 46% for the projection alone. It is a small edge, and this week Lloyd is where it shows up.
The risk is plain. Only five backs in that sample also played under 55% of the snaps, far too few to say anything. If Jacobs is reinstated before Sunday, or Strong’s share keeps growing, this call will be wrong for reasons a team total cannot see. He is the 11th of our 12 running backs for a reason, and the Check Sheet will show next week whether the model was right to put him there.