Javonte Williams is the consensus RB11 for Thursday night. Our model has him RB4, and the gap is mostly one number: Dallas is an 8.5-point home favorite against an 0-4 Tampa Bay team and is expected to score 28 points, the third-highest team total of the week.
The role is already in place. He has played 75% of the Cowboys' offensive snaps this season, between 71% and 80% every week, and his carries have gone 12, 12, 19 and 19. He has five rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown, and finished RB9, RB33, RB10 and RB2.
Over 18 weeks of backtesting, running backs who had played at least 70% of the snaps over their previous three games, on a team expected to score 27 or more, finished inside the top 12 in 14 of 22 cases, 64%. The rate for every back in the plausible top 30 was 34%.
Tampa Bay will also be short on defense. The Buccaneers' first injury report of the week ruled out safety Antoine Winfield Jr., cornerback Benjamin Morrison and linebacker SirVocea Dennis.
The risk is the one every big favorite carries: if Dallas is ahead early, the fourth quarter can go to a backup. With a role this steady and a total this high, that is a risk worth taking at RB4, not a reason to rank him 11th.