The waiver-wire conversation in Green Bay leagues this week will start with Christian Watson, and it is easy to see why. He caught six passes for 147 yards and two touchdowns in the loss at Minnesota, good for 32.7 PPR points and a WR2 finish on the week.
Now look at how he got there. Watson drew eight targets, and 81 of his 147 yards came on a single touchdown. Take that one play away and he had five catches for 66 yards, a perfectly useful line that nobody would be bidding on. Big plays are real, but they are the least repeatable thing a receiver does.
Matthew Golden had the quieter day and the better one. He was targeted 12 times, the most on the team, and played 82 percent of the snaps. Green Bay threw 40 targets in all, so Golden's share was 30 percent against Watson's 20. He caught six for 95 yards with a drop and two red-zone targets that did not become scores. That is a receiver the offense is looking for, and the scoring just did not arrive in Week 1.
The fair caution is game script. The Packers lost 39-22, and trailing teams throw. Forty targets is a high number that will come down in games Green Bay controls. But when the volume falls, it falls for everyone. A 30 percent share of a smaller pie still beats a 20 percent share, and nothing about the loss explains why Golden was the first read.
If you can only afford one, spend on Golden. Our sheet has both as Starts this week at the Jets, but Golden is the one whose role holds up. The market will probably price them the other way around, and that is the opportunity.