Jayden Daniels finished QB2 last week, and the rankings noticed. The FantasyPros consensus has him QB7 for Monday night in San Francisco. Look at how he got there: 17 of 25 for 199 yards and no touchdown passes, plus nine carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-27 tie with the Giants. The two rushing scores were worth more than a third of his 32 points.
The legs are real. He has 203 rushing yards in his three games this season. But the setting this week is not. San Francisco is a 7.5-point home favorite, and Washington is expected to score 21.5 points.
Over 19 weeks of results, quarterbacks on teams expected to score 21.5 or fewer finished outside the top 12 70% of the time (27 cases). In the same test, a quarterback’s rushing volume made no measurable difference to whether he finished outside the top 12; his team’s total did. Sleeper’s projection, which already counts his rushing, has him 13th this week.
The case for him is simple: one long run changes the week, and a team trailing by a touchdown has to keep the ball moving. If you have no one better, play him. But QB7 treats last week as the new normal, and the weakest reason to start anyone is what he did last Sunday. He is one of three quarterback Sits on this week’s sheet, all on teams expected to score 22.5 or fewer.