Last Sunday Davante Adams caught four of nine targets for 32 yards and finished WR61, in the game Puka Nacua returned and drew 12 targets. The consensus has moved him to WR14 for Monday night, just outside the top 12.
We still have him as a Must Start. He played 95% of the snaps, he still drew nine targets, and the Rams are expected to score 28.75 points in a game with a 54.5 total, tied for the highest of the week. His season is 38 targets, 390 yards and two touchdowns, with finishes of WR66, WR2, WR10 and WR61.
The case against him is one bad game, and one bad game is a weak signal. Over 18 weeks of backtesting, receivers ranked ninth to 16th by projection who had finished outside WR50 the week before went on to finish inside the top 12 in 11 of 24 cases, 46%. Receivers in the same range coming off a top-12 week did it 15 times in 46, 33%. Across every position, ranking players on last week's points was the worst method we tested.
The honest risk is Nacua. The only other game they have played together this season was Week 1, when Adams drew six targets and finished WR66. If the Rams' passing game has settled into Nacua first and Adams second, the nine targets last week are closer to his ceiling than his floor.
We think a 54.5-point game has room for both. He is the 11th of our 12 receivers, which is about as much doubt as a Must Start can carry.